Steve fixes the Edmonton Oilers

As I've mentioned repeatedly in my status updates, it's exam time, and I'm running out of reasonable ways to procrastinate, so I'm starting to turn to really idiotic stuff. Accordingly, I just spent about half an hour deciding what I would do if I were the Oilers' GM, and because there's nothing more enjoyable than reading an uninformed sports fan's opinion of what he thinks the highly trained professionals managing his favourite sports team should be doing, I've decided to share the fruits of my labour with you.

My one rule is that I've tried to limit my options to things that the Oilers actually might do; with that in mind, while I think the they should jettison Khabibulin however they can, that's definitely not going to happen, so I'm leaving him in as the starting goalie. I'm also trying to avoid making the standard fan assumption that other teams are just itching to give us great players signed to value contracts in exchange for our flotsam; similarly, I'm trying to make realistic estimates of contract numbers. I might not be very good at either one, since I have no idea what I'm talking about, but I'm trying.

With that in mind, here's what I'd do if my last name were Tambellini.

Players under contract

Of players who could conceivably start next season in the NHL, fourteen are currently under contract with the Oilers next year. Like everybody else who played for the Oilers this year, they're a bunch of bums, but we can't get rid of all of them (or so I'm told), so we should figure out who we're keeping.

Shawn Horcoff (Signed through 2014-2015 at a cap hit of $5.5 million): Keep. The Oilers are not deep in defensively competent centres (please do not quote Horcoff's plus/minus unless you're prepared to also cite the underlying statistics), and Horcoff's contract is probably too big, and his 2009-2010 season too bad, to move. I actually don't think the contract is that bad: he was victimized this season by terrible linemates and some bad luck, and if he stays healthy, gets decent linemates, and stops being expected to do everything himself next year I think he either breaks 50 points or acts as an elite shutdown centre; $5.5 million's a lot for a guy in either of those roles, but it looks a lot better than paying $5.5 million for 36 points and a pile of goals against.

Dustin Penner (Signed through 2011-2012 at a cap hit of $4.25 million): Keep, obviously. The only argument for trading him is if you think the Oilers have no chance of being competitive by 2011-2012, and I think that's premature. Plus, who knows? He might actually re-sign.

Ales Hemsky (Signed through 2011-2012 at a cap hit of $4.1 million): Keep. Everything I said about Penner goes double for Hemsky (well, at least single).

Patrick O'Sullivan (Signed through 2010-2011 at a cap hit of $2.95 million): Buy out. I liked the trade that brought him in, but I was plainly wrong to do so. While it's unlikely that he could be traded, he's young enough that the buy out rules are very favourable.

Robert Nilsson (Signed through 2010-2011 at a cap hit of $2 million): Buy out. Everything I said about O'Sullivan also applies to Nilsson, except for the part about liking the trade that brought him here.

Ethan Moreau (Signed through 2010-2011 at a cap hit of $2 million): Trade our buy out. Nobody would take him at the trade deadline, so buy out might be the only realistic option (Jim Matheson says that the Oilers will do it, too), though his play did improve after the deadline. He's been the captain of what has by all accounts become an extremely dysfunctional team, and if the way he plays with the young guys (refusing to pass to them, taking offensive zone penalties to hamper their scoring chances) is any indication of the way he interacts with them off the ice, I don't want him anywhere near them.

Ryan Jones (Signed through 2010-2011 at a cap hit of $0.975 thousand): Keep. If he was an impending unrestricted free agent I'd shrug my shoulders and let him walk, but he's big, can play some, and is under contract. I expect he'd spend the season on the fourth line and the press box, but you're not going to fill your roster with world-beaters.

Zach Stortini (Signed through 2010-2011 at a cap hit of $700 thousand): Keep. He's cheap and he's a perfectly acceptable fourth liner (and still improving some, by my eye).

Sheldon Souray (Signed through 2011-2012 at a cap hit of $5.4 million): Trade, obviously. I don't like doing it, because I have to think that we'll be taking back somebody even more overpaid than him, but he obviously has to go and a trade is the only realistic way of getting rid of him.

Tom Gilbert (Signed through 2013-2014 at a cap hit of $4 million): Keep. He and Whitney have the look of a legitimate top pairing, the Oilers are very short on legitimate NHL defenseman who haven't demanded to be traded, and Gilbert's trade value is suppressed at the moment by a season in which he didn't score much. In view of all that, there really isn't an argument for trading him.

Ryan Whitney (Signed through 2012-2013 at a cap hit of $4 million): Keep, for the same reasons as Gilbert, minus the suppressed trade value.

Ladislav Smid (Signed through 2010-2011 at a cap hit of $1.3 million): Keep, for all the same reasons as Whitney, plus his could prove one of the best value contracts this year.

Taylor Chorney (Signed through 2010-2011 at a cap hit of $942 thousand): Send him to the minors. I don't think he'd have to clear waivers, and he's not ready for the NHL (no shame in that, as defensemen are notoriously slow to develop). He's also a soft, offense-first defenseman on a team that badly needs somebody more like Andy Sutton.

Nikolai Khabibulin (Signed through 2012-2013 at a cap hit of $3.75 million): Keep, regretfully. He's old, overpaid, overrated, and facing drunk driving charges, but the Oilers have decided that he's their starting goalie, so there's not much point in arguing.

In summary, I'm proposing to keep five forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie at a total cap hit of $28.575 million. I'm not factoring in buy out effects because I'm too lazy to check what they are; apparently they're negligible, though, at least for O'Sullivan and Nilsson.

Restricted free agents

Of players who could realistically start 2010-2011 in the NHL, the Oilers have nine impending restricted free agents. Here's how I'd handle them.

Sam Gagner (Coming off an entry level contract with a cap hit of $1.65 million): Re-sign, obviously - he's 20 years old and has scored 131 NHL points. He's already one of the Oilers' top offensive players (that's called "damnation by faint praise", kids), and shows promise of improving. I would look for a long-term contract, but there's every chance he wouldn't go for that for any reasonable amount. In any event, for next season I'm budgeting a cap hit of $3 million, which might be way off in either direction, but is my best guess (that's called "damnation by faint praise", kids).

Andrew Cogliano (Coming off an entry level contract with a cap hit of $1.133 million): Re-sign. He's coming off a terrible year, which means that his trade value is low and he should be cheap to sign to a one year contract. Plus, he'll have something to prove next year, if you're into intangibles. It's well documented that he benefited from some unreasonably good luck in his first two seasons, and he probably won't score 45 points like he did in his rookie season, but I'll bet he gets more than 28. And after another year played on a one year contract, the worst case scenario is that the Oilers are in the same situation as they are now: having to decide what to do with an impending unrestricted free agent with low trade value. Best case scenario, they have a choice between giving him a big raise or trading him for actual value. After his season, you'd think Cogliano would accept his qualifying offer, but because of the bonuses on his entry level contract doing so would mean a de facto pay cut, so I'm budgeting the generous sum of $1.2 million.

Marc Pouliot (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $825 thousand): Re-sign. Lowetide called him a "perennial prospect", which is about right. Somehow, without my having noticed, Pouliot has spent parts of five seasons in the NHL, playing 176 games. It's worrying that he still hasn't established himself as an NHL player, but he's had injury trouble (this year it was, in Pat Quinn's words, a "pubis thing") and has shown progress. Of the Oilers' prospects (perennial or otherwise), I see Pouliot as the best hope to evolve into that elusive checking centre, so I say keep him. I'm budgeting $1 million for him, probably on a short deal (his upside isn't great enough to lock him in).

Gilbert Brule (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $800 thousand): Trade. He's coming off an excellent year, but he did it on a team where he was getting plenty of icetime with good linemates, since the Oilers weren't exactly flush with alternatives. That, his history, and his abnormally high shooting percentage leave me with some doubt that he can replicate his year, let alone improve on it. While I could be wrong about that, I'd rather sell high than sign him to the kind of money he'll probably expect.

J-F Jacques (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $525 thousand): Trade or do not qualify. The following is an exhaustive list of Jacques' qualifications to be an NHL player: he's very big. He's accomplished nothing of note in 109 NHL games, and his bad back does not inspire confidence that another contract would work out well. I don't know if he has trade value; if he doesn't, the Oilers should just let him walk.

Ryan Potulny (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $595 thousand): Much like Brule, Potulny's coming off a good year which I think may be an aberration based on getting icetime better than he'd get on a real team. Like Brule, I think his next contract will be an overpay, and his trade value is as high now as it's likely to be.

Theo Peckham (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $600 thousand): Re-sign. He's the type of defenseman the Oilers need and he's looked good in most of his NHL action. I think the Oilers can afford to have one rookie defenseman, and Peckham's my pick; it's not as though there are many other contenders. I'm budgeting $800 thousand for a short-term contract.

Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $625 thousand): Trade or send to the minors (effectively waiving him). There isn't room for Drouin-Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk on the Oilers next year, and while Drouin-Deslauriers' numbers were better, Dubnyk is younger, has less NHL experience, and looked to be improving as the year wore on. I suspect that there's no trade market for Drouin-Deslauriers, in which case we should send him to the minors; the worst case scenario is that somebody picks him up on waivers, and that would be no disaster.

Devan Dubnyk (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $700 thousand): Re-sign. If the Oilers were looking to compete this year, I'd suggest getting an established NHL backup, but since they're not they can afford to continue developing Dubnyk. I'm budgeting $1 million short-term, which he should be grateful to get since Oklahoma but for the grace of me goes he.

I'm proposing to re-sign three forwards, one defenseman, and one goalie at a total cap hit of $7 million. That brings our total roster so far to eight forwards, four defensemen, and two goalies at a cap hit of $35.575 million.

Impending unrestricted free agents

The Oilers have five pending unrestricted free agents, all of whom are sufficiently middling that they shouldn't be the subjects of bidding wars; accordingly, I'm assuming that all would be willing to re-sign for a reasonable price.

Fernando Pisani (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $2.5 million): Re-sign. Okay, maybe I'm being sentimental, but did you know he's one of only three Oilers remaining from the 2006 Cup run? When he's healthy, he's still a competent checker, of which the Oilers need more; assuming he'd take a massive pay cut (when he signed this contract, he was not far removed from Conn Smythe consideration; now, he's scored 23 points in the last two seasons combined) I'd bring him back. I have him at $1.2 million, but even that number might be...sentimental.

Mike Comrie (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $1.25 million): Re-sign. I'm a late convert to this cause, since the Oilers have too many small skill players, but since I'm proposing to eliminate O'Sullivan, Nilsson, and Brule, there may be room for Comrie. He had a pretty decent season when healthy, and can score goals without needing to be on the top line. Plus, Hilary Duff is probably the biggest celebrity ever to visit Edmonton for non-work reasons (not her work, at least). I have him getting $1.5 million.

Ryan Stone (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $600 thousand): Do not re-sign. Remember what I said above about Ryan Jones? "If he was an impending unrestricted free agent I'd shrug my shoulders and let him walk..."? Well that's Stone. He's fine as a fourth liner, but we have enough of those guys.

Jason Strudwick (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $700 thousand): Re-sign. He is not a good NHL defenseman, but he's apparently a great mentor to the younger players and one of the only veterans who crosses the age divide reportedly created by Moreau et al's highjinks. I'd platoon him with Peckham in the sixth spot, but if anybody in the top six went down for any period of time I'd bring in somebody else to slot ahead of Strudwick. $800 thousand should be plenty.

Aaron Johnson (Coming off a contract with a cap hit of $540 thousand): Do not re-sign, probably. He's better than Strudwick, though not by all that much, but ideally there's only room for one of them on the team. If the Oilers can't fill out their blue line with players you'd like to see play 82 games, then Johnson can come back, but that's not ideal.

I'm proposing to re-sign two UFA forwards and one defenseman, at a total cap hit of $3.5 million. That brings the total roster to ten forwards, five defensemen, and two goalies, for a cap hit of $39.075 million.

Draft

Tyler Seguin: I don't actually have a strong opinion on who the Oilers should draft: on the one hand, Seguin's trending upwards while Hall isn't so much, and Seguin plays the more important position. On the other, Hall looks more NHL-ready now, and has put up results over a longer period of time. People in the know seem to think that Seguin's the more likely pick, so I'm going to assume it's him. Left to my own devices, I might not bring him into the NHL yet (to avoid getting the clock running on his entry level contract, if nothing else), but he's going to be the key PR piece on a team that will milk him for all he's worth, so it's a safe bet he'll be in Edmonton. I'm not really clear on what a player like that gets on an entry level contract once bonuses are considered, but I remember it being surprisingly high, so I'm just going to say $2.5 million.

Seguin brings the roster to eleven forwards, five defensemen, and two goalies, for a cap hit of $41.575 million.

The rest

This leaves three forwards and two defensemen. Some of those may come from within the system, as Jordan Eberle, Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson, and Linus Omark are all threatening. I'm going to pencil one of them in (probably Eberle) at a cap hit of $1.625 (same as Gagner's entry level).

Some of the spots may be filled by trade: I'm proposing to trade Souray, Brule, and Potulny for sure, and Moreau, Drouin-Deslauriers, and Jacques if anybody will take them. For the most part, I'd rather take prospects (not NHL-ready prospects - there are quite enough of those on my roster already) and picks, and fill the remaining vacancies on the UFA market; in other words, I'd rather not add anything to the roster through trades. In Souray's case, that's probably not viable, as the Oilers will have to take a big contract back to make the trade work; Michal Roszival's a name I keep hearing, so we'll assume it's him or somebody like him: a defenseman with a cap hit of $5 million.

Our cap hit is up to $48.2 million, and we still need two forwards and one defenseman. That leaves us plenty of room to sign some good unrestricted free agents of Daryl Katz is okay spending to the cap without any intention of contending, but it seems more likely that these guys will be getting about $1.5 million each. For all three, I'd look for defensively responsible veterans on one year contracts. The forwards should include a centre who can play on the third or fourth line and maybe sit some games out if everything's working really well with Pouliot and Seguin; Matheson suggested Manny Malhotra, who's currently making $700 thousand in San Jose and probably won't re-sign there after the Sharks do their annual post-first round playoff defeat shuffling of the deck chairs (or he might - who knows what's going to happen in San Jose when Marleau's contract expires). Somebody like him would be good. For the other forward, I'd want a winger who can contribute a little offense - somebody like Pisani before his playoff performance made him unreasonably expensive. Those guys don't grow on trees, so we might need to settle for less. The defenseman should be somebody who likes to block shots with his face - like a Steve Staios or a Jason Smith when they were first acquired for the Oilers.

The resulting team isn't good. It's only got three players who indisputably belong on the top two lines, in Penner, Hemsky, and Gagner, but it's got a lot who can make forays: Horcoff, Seguin, Cogliano, Eberle, Comrie, and maybe one of the two unrestricted free agent signings if we're lucky. It would have sufficient checkers in Horcoff, Pisani, and those two unrestricted free agents.

Defense is a little better: Gilbert and Whitney would remain intact, and Smid and Roszival are probably both legitimate second pairing guys (not necessarily with each other - I'll leave the exact pairings to Tom Renney). If the UFA signing is a really good one, it could be a second pairing guy too; if not, he should at least a respectable third pairing with Peckham or Strudwick. Goal is a question mark, but that's inevitable if we're keeping Khabibulin.

The Oilers almost certainly don't make the playoffs with that lineup. What they do is develop kids at a respectable rate and finish the year with a pretty good draft pick and plenty of cap space (though Roszival would still be on the books for another year). The only key pieces who will need new contracts are Smid and possible Gagner (and maybe some other guys, if we're lucky enough to have them develop into key pieces). If the they show enough promise, and the team is sufficiently non-dysfunctional (or "functional), that unrestricted free agents don't stay away in droves, they should be able to add the necessary pieces to make the playoffs in 2011-2012.